The third wave is predicted to hit the country in the coming 6-8 weeks.

The second wave of the egregious covid virus has declined imperceptibly with the highest mortality rate of times. The government has started the vaccination procedure in full swing. To bring down the numbers in the daily infected rate, the Central and State government implemented stern measures, like promoting health benefits, urging citizens for staying at home, wearing a mask, stepping out when extremely necessary, using sanitizer, maintaining a proper distance and abiding by the lockdown guidelines. At least 16.4% of the total population of the country has received the first jab i.e. 224,541,283 people and 3.6% people i.e. 49,745,316 people have been entirely vaccinated with two doses of the vaccine.

Although it seems like the third wave of this deadly pandemic is knocking at the door. Experts suggest that the third wave might be inevitable and extremely inhuman, if we don’t stay cautious. It is predicted to hit the country in the coming six to eight weeks. AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria on Saturday warned that if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding not prevented, the next wave of the viral infection could strike the country in the next six to eight weeks.

Earlier, India’s epidemiologists had indicated that a third wave of COVID-19 is inevitable and is likely to start from September-October. However, Dr Guleria said on Saturday that it might arrive in the next six to eight weeks until Covid-appropriate behavior is followed aggressively, along with stricter surveillance and area-specific lockdowns in case of a significant surge.

A snap survey was recently conducted by Reuters between June 3-17 wherein 40 specialists, including doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors from around the world, were asked when they expected the third wave to hit.

Over 85% of the survey respondents, or 21 of 24, said the next wave will hit by October, including three experts who predicted that the pandemic may hit again as early as August, while another 12 said it is likely to strike in September. The remaining three experts said the third wave may come between November and February.

On Friday, addressing concerns around impact of third coronavirus wave on children, Luv Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Health Ministry, said: “It may not be true that children will be disproportionately affected in the third wave as the serosurvey shows seropositivity was almost equal in all age groups. But the government is not leaving any stone unturned in terms of preparations.”

In the poll conducted by Reuters, nearly two-thirds of experts, when asked if children and those under 18 years would be most at risk in a potential third wave, said yes.

To which, Dr Pradeep Banandur, head of epidemiology department at National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS) said, “The reason being they are a completely virgin population in terms of vaccination because currently there is no vaccine available for them.”

Dr. Suranjit Chatterjee, a senior consultant at Apollo Hospitals, warned that if safety norms are not followed by people and if there is no strict enforcement in case of violations, then “we are in for a trouble again”.

“The way cases have come down from over 28,000 at peak in April to 131 cases reported yesterday, it is such a dramatic fall in numbers. And, if lockdown was the primary reason for it, then we have to tread very cautiously now with the restrictions being slowly eased,” he told.

“But, if people show laxity by not wearing masks or wearing it inappropriately or violate social distancing norms, and if law enforcement agencies do not penalise and ensure violations do not increase in quantum, then we are certainly in for a trouble. And, the next wave could be worse than the second wave situation,” he said.

Though, Dr Guleria also quoted the third wave will be more controlled, as cases will be much less because more vaccinations would have been rolled out and there would be some degree of natural immunity from the second-wave.

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